In Conversation: Market Outlook with Rob Chrisman of the Chrisman Commentary
Mortgage demand continues to hover around a 22-year low amid higher interest rates, though recent weekly data suggests first-time buyers are carefully edging back into the market. Meanwhile, recession signals remain mixed – with strong employment numbers and the latest reading of gross domestic product (GDP) showing the economy did not contract this year as much as previously estimated.
In this episode of “In Conversation,” SitusAMC’s Justin Vedder talks with Rob Chrisman, a capital markets consultant and publisher of the Chrisman Commentary, the must-read daily snapshot and podcast focused on the mortgage industry and rates. Chrisman and Vedder discuss the latest market and economic trends, and how they are affecting origination, securitization, secondary market activity, and servicing and asset management.
“The market has shifted so quickly in the first two quarters of 2022 that it caught a lot of people by surprise,” said Chrisman. “Everybody knew we would be seeing a reduction in refinancing -- the industry has put millions of borrowers into 30-year mortgages at the 2% rate. Refinancing has left the market almost entirely and what we are dealing with now are cash-out refinance and purchase lending. …Now we’re seeing issues as buyers are looking at the overall economy and thinking, ‘do we really want to buy a home now?’”
The two discuss the state of non-QM loans and other products, the insurance market, challenges and risks. Chrisman also shares his predictions for when the market may normalize.
Vedder is President of Securent, SitusAMC’s comprehensive risk management solution. Securent offers Loan Defect Insurance (LDI) and Mortgage Application Fraud Insurance to protect mortgage lenders, investors, RMBS issuers, warehouse lenders, and other mortgage market participants from liabilities and losses associated with errors, omissions, or fraud introduced in the manufacturing process. Learn more at https://www.securentrisk.com.